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Hold'em : Common Probabilities
 
 

Hand

Improve to

Outs

On the Flop

On the Turn

Open ended straight flush draw

Straight/Flush/Pair

21

72.32%

47.73%

Open ended straight flush draw

Straight/Flush

15

54.10%

32.60%

Inside straight

Straight/One Pair

10

38.40%

21.70%

Four flush

Flush

9

35%

19.60%

Open ended straight draw

Straight

8

31.50%

17.40%

Three of a kind

Full House

7

27.80%

15.20%

Unmatched pocket cards

One Pair

6

24.10%

13%

One pair

Two pair/Three of a kind

5

20.40%

10.90%

Two pair

Full House

4

16.50%

8.70%

Inside straight

Straight

4

16.50%

8.70%

One pair

Two Pair

3

12.50%

6.50%

Pocket pair

Three of a kind

2

8.40%

4.30%

Three of a kind

Four of a kind

1

4.30%

2.20%

 

Common All-in Hand
Match Ups

Approximate
Probability

AK vs 76 suited

AK wins 60%

AK vs QJ

AK wins 64%

AK vs 22

22 wins 51%

AK vs KQ

AK wins 73%

AK vs AA

AA wins 87%

AK vs KK

KK wins 66%

AQ vs KQ

AQ wins 70%

AQ vs QJ

AQ wins 70%

AQ vs KJ

AQ wins 60%

AT vs KQ

AT wins 58%

AA vs KK

AA wins 80%

AA vs 22

AA wins 80%

AA vs 76 suited

AA wins 77%

A2 vs JT

A2 wins 55%

KK vs K2

KK wins 90%

What are the chances of at least one overcard and you missing the set.

Pocket Pair

Probability of not hitting the flop %

AA

0

KK

20.67

QQ

37.84

JJ

51.83

TT

62.94

99

71.53

88

77.92

77

82.43

66

85.39

55

87.12

44

87.96

33

88.22

22

88.24

This is why you need to be very careful with pocket Q’s and lower when missing the flop.

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